Sample: 2023 Startup Draft Strategy Guide
Version 1 of the 2024 Startup Strategy Guide will be published in January 2024
Additional versions will come out throughout the offseason
See an excerpt of the 2023 Startup Strategy Guide below
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Note: Tables look best on a computer!
Sample: Positional Value Overview
| Average PPG by VORP (2018-2022, 6 Game Minimum) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Description | QB | RB | WR | TE |
| Best Starter | #1 | 27.1 | 25.3 | 23.8 | 21.5 |
| High-End Starter | 25th Percentile | 21.5 | 18.5 | 16.9 | 16.6 |
| Average Starter | 50th Percentile | 18.7 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 14.1 |
| Low-End Starter | 75th Percentile | 16.8 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 12.4 |
| Worst Starter | 100th Percentile | 15.1 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 11.4 |
| Average PPG by VORP (2018-2022, 6 Game Minimum) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | QB | RB | WR | TE |
| Round 2 | 20.1 | 20.9 | 18.3 | 21.5 |
| Round 4 | 17.4 | 16.9 | 15.6 | 15.7 |
| Round 6 | 16.5 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 14.4 |
| Round 8 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 12.8 |
| Round 10 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| Round 12 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| Round 14 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | |
Sample: Running Back Positional Walkthrough
Rounds 1-3: The top 5 (and according to ADP, 6)
Bijan Robinson: Is the juice worth the squeeze?
For Bijan Robinson, it’s all about the opportunity cost. See here for my rookie report on Bijan Robinson.
To summarize the rookie report – Bijan is an absolute stud, and there’s no question he should be the RB1. He’s a bona fide threat to finish RB1 year 1. HOWEVER… it’s all about opportunity cost at this range. In order to get Bijan, you need to draft him at 11 or 12, which means you’re foregoing the chance to get a QB, namely Kyler, Richardson or Watson, or Ceedee Lamb. Even outside of startups, that’s the opportunity cost. Outside of startups, I’m more comfortable rostering Bijan, because it’s possible to have two elite QBs around him (perhaps already in place when you get Bijan, if you’ve been tanking properly), but in a startup, I feel the price is a little too high – you’ll be forced to reach on QB later. Basically, would you prefer Watson and Dobbins, or Goff and Bijan. For me, it’s Watson, but there’s an argument either way. The other reason I’d forego Bijan at this price is I believe the next 4 guys offer similar value / production / upside at a lesser cost… Which brings me to:
The only other safe, productive, high-upside, young options: Breece, Gibbs and Taylor
If you don’t go QB-QB to start a draft, or if you’re able to get one of these guys in the 3rd (or trade up to the second), the value is there.
Breece Hall is my favorite opon in this range, a er above the rest (for me). There’s an argument he should be even with Bijan Robinson – if he didn’t get hurt, he might be RB1. Hall was on his way towards a legendary rookie season, scoring 15+ PPG in ever game he got at least 50% snap rate, and finishing as a top 15 RB every healthy week except week 1. The underlying metrics are just as impressive:
• 1st in yards per carry
• 1st in elusiveness
• 1st in explosive run rate (% of runs 10+ yards)
• 2nd in yards aer contact per atempt
• 2nd in yards per route run
• 4th in expected points added per rush
• 7th in rush yards over expected per rush
There’s a legitimate argument he could be the best RB in the league this season, and reports say he’s on track for week 1. Buy the injury dip.
https://ras.football/
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